Last night, under the global spotlight, the U.S. Department of Labor released the latest CPI data for the United States in September—

U.S. inflation in September exceeded expectations across the board. The overall CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, higher than market expectations; the core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, also higher than market expectations; however, the nominal CPI year-on-year increase was the lowest in three and a half years.

The U.S. labor market is slowing down. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that as of the week ending October 5th, the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits increased by 33,000, bringing the total to 258,000, soaring to the highest level in over a year.

At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate in September recorded 4.1%, the lowest since June 2024; the expectation was 4.2%, and the previous value was 4.2%. The total number of unemployed people is 6.8 million.

Wall Street institutions warn that the United States currently has the risk of inflation rebounding.

However, several senior officials of the Federal Reserve spoke after the release of the CPI data, expressing confidence that inflation is moving in the right direction and not being too concerned about the September CPI inflation report being higher than expected.

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Among them, Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin stated that he is increasingly confident that inflation is under control.

Looking at the market's performance after the data release, U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasury yields fell together, with small-cap stock indices, which are more sensitive to the economic cycle, leading the decline.

Precious metals rose, and the U.S. dollar fluctuated significantly. Spot gold's short-term fluctuation reached $17, hitting a daily high. The U.S. Dollar Index once touched the 103 mark, with a 15-minute fluctuation of nearly 50 points.

After the CPI was announced, although the data exceeded expectations, the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut slightly increased, due to the concurrently announced unemployment benefit claims clearly rising.The current implied rate cuts for November and December in interest rate futures are both 25bp, consistent with the Fed's September dot plot.

Do you think the September CPI data in the United States will affect the Fed's rate cut process?