Next week, the United States will witness a pivotal Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. In the lead-up to this meeting, the U.S. has released a series of official economic data.

Just before the weekend, the latest Consumer Confidence Index was announced, with the September index at 67.7, marking a significant decline compared to August.

The Consumer Confidence Index for August was still at 69.5, and the market anticipated a slight dip for September, with an expected value of 69.1. However, the initial value now announced is only 67.7, which is not only lower than last month but also below the pessimistic expectations.

It appears that reality is more pessimistic than anticipated.

The decline in consumer confidence is likely related to the rebound in inflation. The CPI data released a few days ago showed that U.S. inflation has rebounded for two consecutive months, not gradually continuing to fall as imagined.

The previous month's CPI rebounded by 0.2 percentage points, but the pace of rebound in this month further accelerated, with the year-over-year increase rising by 0.5 percentage points.

According to a strategy report from Bank of America, even without accounting for the cost of financing interest, the rise in prices has already posed a significant threat to corporate profits.

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Data model calculations reveal that if inflation is at 3%, it is still manageable for many corporate bonds, but when inflation reaches 4%, the pressure becomes very apparent.

If the inflation rate remains at 4%, the profits of some companies will be insufficient to cover the interest costs of their debt within the next two years, not to mention the pressure of principal repayments when the debt matures.The current rebounding inflation data is highly likely to trigger a comprehensive wave of debt defaults in the United States. The first to be hit will be some corporate junk bonds, which will then evolve to encompass all corporate bonds and government bonds.

An increasing amount of negative news is also reflected in the stock market. Last night, the three major U.S. stock indices fell in sync, with a cumulative drop of 500 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 289 points, but it was not the largest drop; the largest drop was the 217-point decline of the Nasdaq index, reaching 1.56%. In addition, the S&P 500 fell by 1.22%.

Investors on Wall Street analyze that the current stock market is on the brink of a bubble burst, and the possibility of the economy falling into recession has already reached 70%. This analyst has previously successfully predicted the bursting of market bubbles on three occasions.

In his view, the stock market still maintains a certain resilience mainly due to the support of artificial intelligence. As this analyst, who is in his 80s, has experienced multiple stock market crashes, he easily found some similar cases. In his past predictions, he successfully pointed out the bursting of the 2000 tech bubble and the 2008 subprime crisis.

The current situation is now being compared to the Great Depression of 1929.

It now appears that the only ones still expressing optimism about the U.S. economy are U.S. officials.Just two days ago, several economists in the United States jointly published an article, once again pointing out that the U.S. economy will soon fall into a recession.

In this article, it is analyzed that under the situation where both disposable income and personal savings of consumers are significantly reduced, consumer spending is significantly increasing. Due to the increase in spending exceeding the growth of income, Americans have to withdraw their savings or consume through debt. However, it is clear that such consumption is difficult to last.

At the end of the second quarter, credit card debt has exceeded 1 trillion U.S. dollars, and auto loans have reached 1.6 trillion U.S. dollars, both of which are historical records.

On the other hand, the current savings are only 190 billion U.S. dollars, and 2.1 trillion U.S. dollars of the previous 30 trillion savings have been consumed.

In addition, the report also points out that student loans have been suspended for repayment over the past three years, but in October this year, this loan will start to repay normally, which may result in a loss of 9 billion in monthly consumption expenditure.

Looking at all kinds of data together, it is almost impossible for the U.S. economy to achieve a soft landing.